Somerset, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

943
FXUS63 KJKL 260855
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
455 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a small chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm this
  afternoon and early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the
  main threat but a stray, brief tornado will also be possible
  along with times of heavy rain.

- Humid and often wet weather will continue through mid week.

- Rain should become less prevalent late in the week as drier air
  arrives from the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows low pressure to the southwest of Kentucky
with a lifting warm front bisecting the state from west to east.
This front will increasingly be the focusing point for showers
into dawn. Otherwise, there will also be areas of fog around
beneath overcast skies. High humidity throughout the lower Ohio
Valley continues and as such dewpoints are still pretty close to
temperatures. Just like last night they are holding in the mid to
upper 60s most places, amid light to calm winds.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in good
agreement aloft, through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict persistent 5h ridging off the Southeast Coast
while a trough is lifting north northeast out of the lower
Mississippi Valley. This allows for energy at mid levels to stream
into Kentucky in fairly fast southwest flow. This flow will bring
several additional waves tonight and into Wednesday through the
region as that trough to the west dissolves. Given the close
agreement among the models aloft, the NBM was used as the
starting point for the short term grids with little changes
needed. The main adjustments were to add higher resolution timing
and placement details for the PoP grids through Wednesday from the
latest CAMs guidance.

Sensible weather features a more dynamic weather situation across
central and eastern Kentucky today than initially anticipated
over the past few days. While a lull in the activity of the past
day has allowed the soils to recover a bit, the front and several
waves of moisture will make for wet conditions with excessive
rainfall possible later today through Wednesday. Of even more
concern, though, is the low level wind structure around and just
south of the slowly lifting warm front and building instability
into the afternoon. These ingredients allow for several parameters
to push towards a supercell friendly mesoscale environment.
Forecast soundings and hodographs later today, particularly near
Lake Cumberland and for locations along and west of the I-75
corridor, suggest that conditions will allow for a potential of
some discrete low topped supercells to form and work east
northeast. The HRRR shows several updraft helicity traces moving
through the southern portion of the JKL CWA suggesting organized
storms and a non-zero threat of brief tornadoes along with
isolated damaging wind gusts. In conjunction with LMK and SPC this
area has been outlined for a two percent tornado threat area and
a Marginal Risk of several weather. This has been highlighted in
the HWO and will be a focal point for social media posts today.
The shower and storm chances - though less organized after dark -
continue tonight and on Wednesday given the nearby boundary and
high PW air mass. This also limits the diurnal range through the
period with fairly uniform temperatures at night - along with
areas of fog. Some of the rain could train and become excessive by
Wednesday afternoon and a Flood Watch may need to be considered by
later shifts.

The changes to the NBM starting point once again mainly consisted
of including some of the PoP and thunder details from the latest
CAMs guidance through Wednesday evening. As for temperatures and
dewpoints, they were not adjusted much given the moist air mass -
but did shave the highs back toward modeled hourly temps both
afternoons and likewise brought the lows up a tad at night as the
high dewpoints limit nightly temperature drops resulting in an
overall small diurnal temperature trace.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 455 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

The main change to the extended forecast this morning was to allow
for a bit more terrain influence for lows later in the week as we
start to dry out - if only for a couple of days. The pattern
shift advertised below looks to be on track to bring some welcomed
drier weather for the end of the week and potentially continuing
through the next weekend - best chances for extended drying will
be for the northern parts of Kentucky.

The previous long term discussion follows:

A stationary front will be situated just north and west of the
area to begin the long-term period Wednesday, with Eastern
Kentucky entrenched within the muggy warm sector to its
southeast. A shortwave will cross the area during the day
Wednesday within southwesterly mid-level flow, with widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity within an environment
characterized by PWs around 1.8" and on top of saturated soils,
which will raise the possibility of at least isolated excessive
rainfall impacts.

The stationary front moves south through the area as a cold front
Wednesday night into Thursday as southwesterly mid-level flow turns
northerly for the second half of the week. A series of upper
troughs then dig south from eastern Canada through the Mid-
Atlantic to end the week into early next week. Big question mark
for Thursday and Friday is whether a wave within more westerly
flow aloft ahead of a deep closed low traversing the New England
region is able to ride along the stationary front to our south
and bring rain/showers to southern parts of the forecast area. At
this time, there is enough uncertainty to warrant low-end PoPs
across much of the forecast area, especially south of I-64 from
Thursday night through Sunday, with high enough confidence to take
out rain chances from roughly I-64 and points north as surface
high pressure should be close enough to suppress rain chance
south. By Sunday night, it appears all areas should be free of any
significant PoPs as surface high pressure prevails across the
Ohio River Valley.

Temperatures will remain mild through the period, with highs and
lows near normal overall (mid to upper 70s for highs, upper 50s
for lows) as southwesterly flow becomes northerly, and humid and
cloudy conditions with rain chances transition to a cooler and
drier regime.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

VFR conditions were still holding for all the TAF terminals at
the start of the forecast period. However conditions will
deteriorate to MVFR/IFR over the next few hours from south to
north and then persist with such restrictions through at least the
first part of the day as a frontal boundary lifts across the area
with renewed showers, low clouds, and areas of fog. The activity
will become more scattered and convective during the afternoon and
evening hours with thunderstorm chances depicted via PROB30s in
the TAFs at all sites. Winds will remain light and variable
through the period - away from any thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC/GREIF
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF